中國新型農業合作經濟組織模式的發展透析與前景展望

The analysis and prospects of China ’s new argricultural cooperative economic model development

              秦宏毅¹               張全鋒²

    Hon-Gyi Qin     Chuan-Feng Chang

¹桂林理工大學人文社會科學學院教授

Guilin University of Technology College of Humanities and Social Sciences Professor

日本星城大學研究員

Japan University of Star City College of Management Researcher

E-mail: 2000qyc@163.com

²桂林理工大學人文社會科學學院研究生

Guilin University of Technology College of Humanities and Social Sciences postgraduate

E-mail: xcquanfeng@163.com

摘要

    當前中國發展新型農村經濟合作組織，必須跨越思想認識上的偏差，跨越主觀命令的方式，跨越單一形式之弊。它的出現是由農業生產自身特點、中國農業生產的現實條件及中國農業生產的現實條件所決定的。新型農業合作經濟組織的發展很快，優點明顯。今後中國農業合作經濟組織發展模式應遵從自願、多樣化、規模化、社會化等原則。

關鍵字： 三農、農業產業化、合作組織

Abstract

   In recent the development of China’s new rural economic cooperation organization has to beyand the ideological deviation, the manner of subjective order and the malpractice of single form. Its appearance is determined upon characteristic of agricultural production and reality conditions of China's agricultural production and the direction of China's agricultural growing. New rural rconomic cooperation organization develops rapidly and it has obvious advantages. In the future, the development model of China's agricultural cooperative economic organizations should comply with principles of voluntary, diversity, large-scale, socialization.

James Y.S. Liu

    Dean of Academic Affairs and Associate Professor of International Trade Department Ta-Hwa Institute of Technology

E-mail:myfanyi@thit.edu.tw

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the current status of Taiwan, both politically and economically. The central focus of analysis is in terms of how Taiwan interacts with China, and how it performs recently. Due to strong impact from global financial tsunami and trade recession, Taiwan has since suffered severely. Its economic forecast for 2009 is a minus growth (-3 to -5%, according to various source; though recently most agencies have up-graded their forecasts), and unemployment and woes related with it are nearly across every industrial sector. In such a situation, money from China (either in the form of expenses spent by increasing influx of Chinese tourists traveling here or in the form of capital inflow pushing up the Taipei Stock index over 6000 points), is of course more than welcome by government as well as business here.

Besides the monetary benefits of engaging with China, there is also harvest in political terms. Both sides recently signed a comprehensive agreement covering cooperative issues ranging from jurisdiction, shipping, investment and an initial agreement upon financial MOU. (cf. the third Chiang-Chen Talks, Mainland Affairs Council website; though these measures needed to be approved by legislative body). Also WHA has recently granted invitation to Taiwan this year, through either formal or implicit consent from China. Minister of Health Dr. Yeh had also just returned from his short yet pioneering trip to Geneva, where headquarter of WHO locates.

In spite of all these positive sides of Cross-Strait relation, there are some points still needed to be reminded, For example, in the latest edition of a local leading business magazine, the message shown in its annual Top1000 Survey of Taiwan, Hong Kong, and China (Business Weekly, No.1120, May 11, 2009) has brought attention to our mind that Taiwan has suffered most in this global economic downturn. Average recession in both top-line (sales, minus10.2%) and bottom-line (profit, minus 72.2%) of Taiwanese Business in the 1000 List (255 companies altogether) are worst compared with the other two counterparts. Meanwhile, in 2009 Global Competitiveness Index Ranking (IMD, 2009), Taiwan also performs worst. It ranks 23^rd, lagging far behind Hong Kong (2^nd) and even behind China (20^th).  

The seemingly over-dependence on China and waning competitiveness of Taiwanese Business at the same time can’t be overlooked. Leaders of Taiwan, both in politics and business, need to think strategically about this situation. Proper actions, with long-term strategic implication, should be taken immediately.

Key words: Cross-Strait Relation, Competitiveness, Taiwan’s Option

「非官方模式」在台日關係中的問題與盲點：

兼論台日兩地的海權爭議

Example

許金彥

Chin-Yen Hsu

南榮技術學院企業管理學系專任助理教授

Assistant Professor, Department of Business Administration,

Nan Jeon Institute of Technology

E-mail: tedo0704@mail.hku.edu.tw

摘要

自二次大戰結束迄今，己逾六十餘年，而台、日兩地素稱「近鄰遠國」，不論是在自由民主的主觀意識上、抑或是在區域安全的客觀形勢上，兩者雖皆有著高度的交集與緊密的連繫，但雙邊關係透過「非官方模式」以維繫彼此的互動往來卻又長達四十餘年，其箇中原由，頗堪玩味。儘管「非官方模式」在冷戰時期為台日關係的延續，曾經發揮了積極創新的歷史作用，並且成為日後美國處理台美關係的參考借鏡；但隨著後冷戰時期的到來，在涉及諸如海權爭議及國家定位等普世性議題的處理上，「非官方模式」則一再暴露了原有功能之侷限，也因而突顯了其欠缺法制化與定型化的特點。本文之目的，即在藉由檢視台日關係與海權爭議的處理問題為例，以便能為今後台日的良性互動，提供重新思考的方向。

關鍵字：非官方模式、官方模式、台日關係、海權爭議

Abstract 

  The relations between Japan and Taiwan have been very close and important. Both two countries share the same ideology about democracy. For improving the security of the region, they are also interdependent. However, because there are no diplomatic relations between the two countries, the bilateral relation is only improved by the “unofficial model”. In the periods of the Cold War, this unofficial model was used to deal with many issues between these two countries successfully. But there are also many drawbacks in the unofficial model. Particularly in the post-Cold War era, many debates have failed to be resolved by using this unofficial model. This paper also takes the debates on sea rights between Japan and Taiwan as an example and intends to examine the unofficial model.

Keywords: the Unofficial Model, the Official Model, the Relations between Japan and Taiwan, the Debates on Sea Rights

台灣IC製造業廠商赴大陸投資之評估分析

Evaluating Taiwanese IC Manufacturers’ Foreign Direct Investment in China

                                                                            江怡慧¹          洪志洋²

Yi-Hui Chiang   Chih-Young Hung

¹大華技術學院國際貿易系講師

Lecturer, Department International trade Ta-Hwa Institute of Technology

PhD Candidate

 交通大學科技管理研究所博士候選人

Institute of Management of Technology, National Chiao-Tung University

²交通大學科技管理研究所副教授

Associate Professor, Institute of Management of Technology, National Chiao-Tung University

E­-mail: yihui@thit.edu.tw

摘要

中國大陸實施經濟改革開放二十餘年來，其經濟的快速起飛已引起全世界之矚目，成為全世界吸引外人直接投資 (Foreign Direct Investment；簡稱為FDI) 的主要國家。為求瞭解台灣IC製造廠商到中國投資時之考量因素及其偏好順序，本文運用德菲法 (Delphi Method) 及層級分析法 (Analytic Hierarchy Process；簡稱AHP)，作為研究方法，從而建立評估架構和進行資料分析。根據研究發現，受訪者一致認為「土地」為進行海外投資時最優先考慮的評量準則，其次為「母國開放對外投資政策」、第三為「政府對產業在母國投資的管制」。此研究結果，可供同業或相關產業等赴大陸或其他開發中國家進行海外投資評估時之參考。

關鍵字：外人直接投資、德菲法、層級分析法

In 2002, FDI in China exceeded that in the USA. Furthermore, in 2003, the total amount of FDI in China reached 53.5 billion US dollars. This makes China becoming the country with the largest inflow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). In this paper, we apply Delphi Method and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to investigate the determinants and preference on FDI decision-making. The proposed evaluation framework based on AHP considering 4 goals and 16 evaluation criteria can enable us to facilitate the understanding of the issue in terms of performing FDI in China. There are no published works using Delphi and AHP to deal with such an issue. This study is presented as a test case to extend practical applications of AHP in the field of FDI, it also surely provides useful and profound insights that helping manufacturers conduct better decision-making about FDI.

Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Delphi Method

論全球化經濟市場下中國實施貨幣調控之

因應機制─以定量模型分析

By globalized economical market under Chinese implementation currency regulation in accordance to mechanism - by quantitative model analysis

曾惠珠

Hui-Chu Tseng

環球技術學院實習中心主任

Director Internship Services Center Office, Transworld Institute of Technology

E-mail: hui@tit.edu.tw

摘要

本文建立了一個以貨幣乘數預測為基礎，穩定幣值和促進經濟增長為調控目標，模型自動調控基礎貨幣為手段，簡化的AD-AS模型評價調控效果的中國貨幣供給總量調控模型，並利用該模型對中國1990年代中後期的貨幣調控效果進行了定量模擬評價，對21世紀初期貨幣調控方案進行了初步模擬分析。本研究分析結果顯示，經濟增速越快，通漲代價越高。調控力度越大，經濟波動越激烈，貨幣調控必須正確把握其調控力度，避免導致經濟的急劇波動。從3個方案的模擬可見，基礎貨幣變動到M0變動之間基本上不存在時滯，而到M1的變動之間存在約1個季度的時滯；到M2的變動之間存在約3個季度的時滯。調控力度較小的低方案，貨幣供給、經濟增長和通貨膨漲的波動都最小，基礎貨幣和3個層次的貨幣增長率在18-22%之間小幅波動，經濟增長和通貨膨漲的波幅不超過1.5個百分點；波動週期為6-7年。貨幣政策的傳遞存在1-2年的時滯，在制定和調整貨幣政策的時候必須充分考慮到這種傳遞時滯。初期貨幣調控應採取穩健適度擴張的貨幣政策，隨後則應採取穩健的適度緊縮的貨幣政策。

關鍵詞：貨幣調控效果、定量模擬分析

全球金融風暴對中國大陸的影響及其因應策略

The coming financial storm and China's strategy

王有康

Yu-Kun Wang

國立台北商業技術學院財稅夜二技講師

Department of Finance of National Taipei College of Business part-time lecturer

國立空中大學商學系講師

National Open University, Department of Business lecturer

國立成功大學政治經濟研究所博士生

National Cheng Kung University graduate Institute of Politics & Economy PhD

E-mail：W550109@mail.ntcb.edu.tw

 摘要

此次百年一遇的國際金融危機發生前，全球經濟剛經歷了二戰後持續時間最長的繁榮期：2002至2007年，無論發展中國家或發達國家，都出現了經濟持續快速增長。為什麼發達國家能夠快速增長？其中，『遠因』是上世紀90年代初蘇聯解體後，市場經濟成為全球的主流，金融業管制放鬆，金融創新活躍。『近因』有二：一是911事件後美國大幅提高國防安全支出，增發貨幣，流動性猛增；二是『新經濟』泡沫破滅後，美聯儲為避免經濟衰退放鬆了貨幣政策，強力刺激房地產消費。這些因素都增加了可用資金數量，帶動投資和消費，令經濟出現榮景。美國等發達國家經濟的繁榮，有力帶動了發展中國家出口的增加，加之發展中國家內部也出現投資高潮，連帶消費昇溫，這樣，發展中國家的經濟也出現了持續增長。然而，全球經濟快速增長伴隨著不斷提高的脆弱性，潛伏著危機。這些暗藏之危機包括：美國房地產價格以非可持續性的兩位數上漲；美國的『雙赤字』越來越大；金融創新的衍生品進一步放大風險。如老子所說的，「福兮，禍之所伏」，終於有一天，令經濟快速增長的源泉，變成了導致危機發生的原因。美國刺激房地產消費的政策給經濟帶來繁榮，亦累積了泡沫，而泡沫沒有不破滅的，這就出現了美國次級抵押市場危機。金融創新非但沒能分散和抑制風險，反而加重了風險，使次貸危機引發連鎖反應，導致一場國際金融危機。本文擬就中國如何因應當前全球金融風暴加以探討利弊得失並提出具體改革建議。

兩岸經濟關係解讀一種交易成本分析視角

An Analysis: The Transaction Cost of Cross Strait Economic Relationship

吳金城

Chin-Cheng Wu

廈門大學 臺灣研究院

Taiwan Research Institute, Xiamen University

Email: emmawu88@hotmail.com

摘要

交易成本是新制度經濟學的核心概念，這一概念可以運用於兩岸經濟關係分析解讀中，兩岸經濟關係的交易成本包括資訊與搜集成本、協商與談判成本以及監督和實施成本；而這些成本的大小將對兩岸經濟關係發展有重要的影響！議題領域的敏感性、制度的一致性、決策的透明度、專門化程度、不確度性、交易頻率是構成影響兩岸經濟關係中交易成本大小的主要因素。

關鍵詞：交易成本、治理結構、兩岸經濟關係

Abstract

Transaction cost is the core concept in new institutional economics. The concept can be applied in the study of cross-strait economic relations. The transaction cost of the cross-strait relations includes information gathering costs, the consultation and negotiation costs and supervision and implementation costs. And these costs will be of great influence to the development of cross-strait economic relations. The sensitivity of the system consistency, transparency in decision-making, the degree of specialization, degree of uncertainty, and the transaction frequency are the main factors in the transaction costs of cross-strait economic relations.

Keywords: Transaction Cost, Structure of Governance, Cross-strait Economic Relations